V.V. Kuznetsov ¹

Received: 1 September 2004  Accepted: 13 April 2005  

Abstract  For the last 20–30 years, the drift velocity of the north magnetic pole (NMP) has increased by a factor of almost 5. It is unclear whether this is the cyclic process, according to which NMP twice changed the direction of its drift (in 1580 and 1860) and should turn once again in approximately 2140, or this acceleration is related to the effect of jerk-69, or the NMP acceleration shows the beginning of geomagnetic field reversal. Both magnetic poles have been drifting pole ward (toward each other) beginning from 1860: NMP, in the Western Hemisphere; south magnetic pole (SMP), in the Eastern Hemisphere. Both poles move along the paths typical of the motion of virtual magnetic poles during reversal. The velocity of SMP drift during the period of instrumental measurements slightly decreased: from 8 km/yr at the initial stage to 4 km/yr at the present. A possible cause of NMP drift acceleration and SMP drift deceleration is discussed. It has been indicated that the NMP position can be estimated based on a change in the geomagnetic field horizontal components registered at the nearest observatories. Measurements of the NMP position, which can be performed during the next three-five years, can make it possible to answer the question whether NMP continue accelerating or starts decelerating. It is discussed whether NMP acceleration and an increase in the jerk occurrence frequency are interrelated and whether these facts points to the beginning of reversal.

PACS numbers  S91.25.Mf

Original Russian Text © V.V. Kuznetsov, 2006, published in Geomagnetizm i Aeronomiya, 2006, Vol. 46, No. 2, pp. 280–288.